Alarm over China military justified?

As a US report criticises Chinese military spending, Jenghiz von Streng considers whether the concern is justified…

 

© atkinson000

 

The US Pentagon last week released its annual report on China’s military capability, claiming that the pace and scope of its military investments were “potentially destabilizing” for the region. The Chinese response was nothing if not predictable. The Foreign Ministry called it an “irresponsible act” while state news agency Xinhua dismissed the allegations as a “cock and bull story”. With all the accusations and counter-accusations flying about, it’s time for some clear-sighted analysis of the issues surrounding China’s military build-up.

 

Chinese advances in weapons systems and technologies

Current US anxieties are largely based on a number of advances being made by the Chinese military. The PLA has pursued an asymmetric strategy that seeks to compensate for its weaknesses by targeting the vulnerabilities of potential opponents. Thus the investment in cyber warfare capabilities, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and attack submarines. Recent test flights and sea trials for China’s first stealth aircraft and aircraft carrier have also sparked alarm.

But US fears are over-hyped. It will take years or even decades of training, for example, before China acquires the knowhow to deploy aircraft carriers offensively. The US, meanwhile, already possesses 11 aircraft carrier battle groups. Similar for China’s J-20 stealth fighter, which will take another decade to be deployed. The US plans to possess 2,600 F-22s and F-35s by 2030.

These advances merely show that China is gradually developing a modern military, while its asymmetric strategy illustrates the overwhelming superiority of US forces.

 

Increases in military spending

A second point of concern has been China’s large increases in overall military spending. China plans to spend an extra 12.7 per cent this year, continuing the trend of double-digit increases over the past decade. It now claims to spend $95.1 billion on its army, though the real figure is probably closer to the $160 billion estimated by the Pentagon. This trend has worried not just US observers, but most of the countries in the region.

But the Chinese have some legitimate counter-arguments. For now, China accounts for 7 per cent of global defense spending, while the US share is a whopping 43 per cent. Much of its spending increases are eaten up by higher wages and rising costs, while inflation also offsets a significant amount. China’s spending has hovered at 2 per cent of GDP over the past decade, while the US now spends 5 per cent.

Ultimately, China’s military investment is largely in line with its rapid economic development, and still a long way short of the $700 billion spent by the US this year.

 

Destabilizing the region?

The claim most widely picked up on by the media has been the report’s assertion that all this has the potential to “destabilize” the Asia-Pacific region. Unfortunately, Pentagon officials struggled to explain this, saying it had something to do with China’s “lack of transparency” and long-term trends. But this points to the real issue causing US officials sleepless nights. Namely the fear that China may eventually become strong enough to deny US access to the western Pacific region it sees as its historical sphere of influence.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that this may be China’s ultimate aim, but the Chinese military is decades away from being able to contemplate this. More importantly, its recent actions have provoked immediate responses from its neighbours. Vietnam, for instance, put down an order for new Russian submarines in response to the growing influence of China’s submarine fleet.

Rather than “bandwagoning” with an emergent China, it would seem that the more China rises, the more most of its neighbours want to balance against it with the US. As a Chinese professor once told me in Beijing, if China’s neighbours had to pick between the two, “they will side with the US…it’s further away.”

Ultimately, the US concerns highlighted in the Pentagon report reflect more their own insecurities than actual Chinese advances. Of course, this is all coming at a time when US lawmakers are contemplating significant cuts to the defense budget. But alarmists should keep in mind that China is a long way from challenging US military supremacy, and the more it tries to do so the more its neighbours will respond.

Jenghiz von Streng is an International Relations master’s student, and has recently spent a year studying in Beijing.

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